Scenario Analysis — Dealing with Uncertainty
The world is changing fast and uncertainty is dominating many markets, so that accurate forecasting has become almost a mission impossible. How can we better understand consumers’ behaviour & decisions?
Uncertainty is having a big impact on consumers’ lives. So how do brands continue to learn and understand consumers, and identify opportunities now and in the future?
The key is to understand how to bridge periods of uncertainty and come out the other side with stronger brands, more relevant product offers, and more engaging communication.
ADK INSIGHTS has been refining one of our key analysis tools by applying a few guiding principles to help us navigate decision-making processes. We believe that our Scenario Analysis tool can be one of the best ways to provide strong and robust insights for brands to understand the now and prepare for the future.
SCENARIO PLANNING is a strategic insight tool which probes into the future and all its uncertainties, enabling brands to effectively foresee and construct appropriate responses for a variety of plausible scenarios.
Very importantly, it helps brands avoid the two most common mistakes in strategic planning, i.e. overpredicting & underpredicting.
Consumer sentiments can influence decisions and options, and different people are bound to react differently in a crisis. We are well-aware that a daily study into consumer sentiment about the impact of COVID-19 for example, or the current war in Ukraine, would result in different numbers every single day. These numbers undoubtedly change over time as situations develop.
The big question is what sentiment will be in six, nine, or twelve months when the crisis wears off. For that, our Scenario Analysis can distinguish a different sentiment in three points in time: now, before and after a crisis. Our tool is centered around a SENTIMENT-BASED SPLIT ANALYSIS APPROACH. When we talk to consumers, we first need to ‘label’ or segment them in terms of their sentiments – are they (A) very worried, (B) concerned or (C) little or not worried. The split-scenario approach enables us to analyze each group separately and form conclusions for each group. We can map opinions and intentions from both positive and negative-minded consumers, in order to create a more complete strategic direction.
How can we help?
ADK Insights combines both qualitative exploration of consumers’ rational and emotional factors, along with the quantitative scale and full global social media coverage to validate ideas, habits and desires.